Last week we discussed cyberthreats in telework environments. Today we will examine telework trends with a focus on rural spaces. While the post-COVID pendulum is still swinging, we can expect the equilibrium position to support greater “work from anywhere” engagement in a post-COVID world.
I am usually a fan of structured writing that introduces an issue, builds a thesis, and then presents a conclusion. For today, I’ll skip to the finish: Despite tempering of the so-called “employee’s market,” hybrid work arrangements that blend telework with in-office appearances can be expected to remain popular in a post-COVID world. Coupled with out-migration from urban areas to rural spaces, telework from rural communities can be expected to increase. As noted last week, this implicates cybersecurity concerns for small businesses. And, as we will explore in a future post, this also implicates opportunities for rural ISPs to serve as telework platform advisors to local businesses. Now that we’ve arrived at the end of this post, let’s a take a look at how we got here.
The USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) recently published an analysis of labor trends, comparing rural and urban spaces. At the outset, the most remarkable (sobering?) aspect was the report’s dry recitation of three major epochs that spanned on 14 collective years: the Great Recession (2007-09); recovery (2010-19); and the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-21). On the plus side, rural employment returned to 97 percent of pre-Great Recession levels before the COVID-19 pandemic emerged. Although not stated definitively, rural employment levels that have not returned to pre-Great Recession levels may be related to population declines in non-metro areas during that period (but see this post suggesting that declines in “rural” populations may be the result of urban areas that expand and effectively absorb neighboring rural spaces).
Although rural employment has not fully recovered, non-metro areas suffered fewer job losses than urban areas during the pandemic. ERS suggests that more urban than rural workers were deemed to be in “non-essential” jobs. Overall, rural spaces seemed at least moderately more insulated from COVID-related job loss than urban spaces.
At the same time, several data sets also indicate that the ability to telework may be generating growth in rural spaces. Economic Innovation Group (EIG) reports that the gap between rural and urban housing prices is narrowing; EIG surmises that this indicates the so-called “urban exodus” is supporting long-term moves to rural spaces. To be sure, there are conflicting data from other inquiries that examine apparent COVID-19 fueled moves; no definitive outcome of urban-to-rural moves has been enumerated as the data continue to emerge. However, the “work from anywhere” model is consistent with initial impressions that rural areas offer expanded employment options, and year-end U.S. Census Bureau data demonstrates that Arizona, Idaho, Montana, South Carolina, Texas, and Utah led the population growth from July 2020 to July 2021 (California, New York, Rhode Island and Washington, D.C., accounted for four of the five places with the steepest population declines during that period). EIG notes that the areas with the highest housing costs were among those that lost the greatest proportion of populations in the 2020/21 timeframe.
Other factors beyond housing costs have been cited historically as burnishing the attraction of rural spaces. These include a sense of community lower crime (this despite recent rural increases, see this recent Wall Street Journal article), lower cost of living, and school quality. A 2015 ERS report also cited family-related reasons as a prevalent factor.
At this point, let’s pause and summarize: A narrowing gap in housing prices between rural and urban spaces indicates that urban-to-rural migrations are for the long-term. The narrowing gap essentially represents the impacts of evolving supply and demand forces (one NTCA member recently shared that in his community, contractors are operating on a two-year delay for new housing). While these empirical and anecdotal data are not dispositive, they are consistent with other reports portraying movements from urban to rural spaces.
Now let’s take a look at the job market generally. There is a familiar living meme in many places: a preponderance of “help wanted” and “hiring” signs announcing opportunities in service and white-collar sectors. Numerous articles in trade and general media portray a “worker’s market” which includes not only favorable negotiating positions for both wages and benefits but also flexibility in terms of work schedules and telecommuting arrangements. This, too, weighs in favor of wider abilities to telecommute from rural spaces.
Inflation and a slowing economy are threating a gravitational force on the job market pendulum. Major firms including Tesla and Netflix have announced hiring freezes and/or reductions. Career advisors are dispensing advice that seemed outdated in the post-COVID halcyon of working barefoot from home five days a week: Be present. Show up on time. Be part of the in-person team. And yet the potential of a looming recession is not expected to yank the rug from beneath telework. Rather, these reports combined with others suggest that labor markets are still searching for an equilibrium in hybrid work arrangements. And this evolution finds expression in both urban and rural spaces.
Pew Research reports that nearly 60% of employed adults have jobs that can be “teleworked.” At the same time, many who can telework are not teleworking, citing such reasons as feeling more productive in the workplace, lack of space or resources at home, or feeling pressure from supervisors to be at the office. These pressures may increase if the macroeconomic impacts increase, and people feel pressure to “be present.” In fact, 60% of new teleworkers report feeling disconnected from colleagues who at the office. But again, invoking the image of the pendulum, these factors can be expected to find a new equilibrium: As telework becomes more commonplace, the “pressure to be present” can be expected to ease as more people engage telework. The solitary teleworker is no longer a unicorn. Pew notes that even as workplaces open, 77% of telework-able workers are working from home at least part of the time. This is only a slight decrease from the 83% of telework-able workers who were working from home in October 2020. And 44% of those working from home report that it is easier to meet deadlines; 64% shared that it is easier to balance home and work life; and despite the strong showing of those who feel disconnected when working at home, 72% report they do not feel that telecommuting will affect their ability to advance in their job.
So, where does this leave us? (1) Many, albeit not all, rural spaces are enjoying growth. (2) Telework is engaged at higher rates than pre-pandemic, and despite recent moderation is expected to remain strong as hybrid work arrangements become more common. (3) Rural telework can be expected to increase, creating opportunities for rural ISPs to support both teleworkers and local businesses.
When we meet again, we will discuss examples of managed telework solutions and potential roles for rural ISPs. The pendulum is not yet at rest.