In the mid-2000s, word clouds emerged as a popular visual device. These displays show collections of words sized according to their frequency: the more often a word appears in a body of text (or a set of survey responses), the larger it is displayed. The usefulness of word clouds can be debated - since they measure only the frequency of each word, they do not account for synonyms or context. But as pictorial representations of text, they can be an effective expression of sentiments and information.
Last week, I collected badges from three conferences that collectively pointed to an AI future. Starting in Missouri with the Illinois Broadband & Telecommunications Association, where I shared a regulatory update, then back to Washington, D.C., for the Hispanic Tech and Telecommunications Partnerships meeting, and finally an Amazon Web Services conference. Each program touched on AI (in fact, the AWS conference was focused nearly exclusively on AI). And as I compiled my notes, certain phrases began to emerge like a word cloud: credentialing and upskilling; predictive analytics; personalized care; semantic interoperability; precision medicine; personalized learning experiences; and -perhaps most critically - using AI responsibly.
Fears that AI will precipitate widespread job losses are not unfounded: One AI executive predicts that entry-level white collar jobs could shrink 10%-20% over the next five years. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is studying how AI will affect job projections. But these factors don't tell the whole story, especially for rural areas concerned about "brain drain:" The Ohio State University is training all 45,000 undergrads to use new AI technologies - not to replace them, but to prepare them for job markets in which AI literacy is as fundamental as digital literacy is now.
BLS examined AI use cases for sectors including coding, legal services, finance and engineering. Certain of the impacts have a Stephen King-type twist: For example, cloud computing is expected to increase as AI usage grows, fueling a self-reinforcing cycle in which expanding demand for database architecture and administration triggers greater reliance on AI as those segments while reducing the need for human coders. And these needs are expected to increase as data sets grow too large to be kept "on prem." This is especially true for healthcare, whose data constitutes about 30% of all global data. AI tools are also expected to gain a foothold in the legal profession. Large language models (LLM) can digest enormous amounts of data for summaries and analysis.
But much the way advances in computing and software did not decrease demand for paralegals but rather changed the nature of their work, AI in legal practice will enable practitioners to focus on more intricate tasks while relieving them of more mundane work (ask me what it was like to be a young associate charged with summarizing the 1998 FCC USF Order). And in healthcare, AI is expected to free doctors' time by creating efficiencies in note taking and record keeping, all while enabling better, more personalized modes of healthcare by analyzing vast data sets to create personalized health treatment plans.
And all of this creates opportunities for rural providers who can deliver the reliable, high-speed connectivity that AI applications demand.
In a podcast last week, Gregory Hinton, the so-called "godfather of AI," predicted a 10%-20% chance that AI might decide at some point that there is no longer a need for humans, while a report from MIT observed "cognitive atrophy" among some AI users. And just days earlier, PCMag reported that a 1978 Atari 2600 "absolutely wrecked" a ChatGPT chess bot. If that's the case, perhaps we should be more concerned about being supplanted by the Centipede, Frogger or Pac-Man. At the least, it recalls Mark Twain's quip that "The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."
But in three years, five years or less, we will soon be a nation of digital natives, a trajectory that behooves us now to establish AI policies to keep us (and AI) bounded intelligently.
In the meantime, choose your chess partner wisely.