Labor market shortages in rural spaces have been a subject of inquiry for several years. Certain conversations intensified after the Great Recession and COVID-19, but the primary forces reshaping rural job markets had been building for decades. Continuing evolutions in U.S. labor markets, however, indicate positive opportunities for rural spaces with robust broadband connectivity, supplemented by active engagement among different sectors, including K-12 education and upskilling for current workers, all aimed at facilitating tech-based and knowledge economy jobs. Some overcast numbers first, then some sunshine.
As of January 2026, U.S. hiring and separation rates settled into a "low-hire/low-fire" equilibrium (3.3% and 3.2%, respectively), among the lowest since the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics began tracking this data 25 years ago. It looks comfortingly steady, but beckons attention to ensure stability does not turn to stagnation. Among small businesses with fewer than 250 employees, hiring and separation rates were effectively flat from December 2025 to January 2026. Small businesses in rural spaces with strong broadband can push those numbers upward.
Rural economies were historically grounded in two industries: place-based (agriculture, forestry and extraction) and manufacturing. But manufacturing divides into two broad categories: place-based, which relies on natural resources, and "footloose," which is untethered to a region and susceptible to offshoring. Coupled with trends of increasing agricultural output even as human labor inputs decrease, these forces exert significant downward pressure on rural labor markets. Between 2000 and 2021, U.S. farm jobs fell 17% (about 500,000 jobs) while the value of American agricultural production climbed 47%, to roughly $478 billion. Rural manufacturing declined over the same period. For a time, relatively steady manufacturing employment through the mid-1980s mitigated ag job losses and sustained income levels sufficient to hold poverty rates at bay. While current downward pressures in both sectors create a sobering outlook, rural broadband enables upward mobility.
Knowledge-based jobs are jobs that require post-secondary education and specialized training. These tend to cluster in urban areas, where educational attainment rates are on average higher than rural spaces. There is also the phenomenon of rural youth who go to college and don't return home. But many knowledge-based jobs can be worked anywhere, and many knowledge-based firms can find homes in rural spaces and "work outward" from there. And the so-called "brain drain" may reflect expedience more than deeply held inclination.
Research based on interviews with nearly 70 rural young adults found that many would accept lower wages for the opportunity to return home, confirming a 2015 USDA study showing that family, lower costs of living and community will bring people back to rural spaces when the jobs are there.
The COVID-19 pandemic served, however inadvertently, as an important test. Areas with robust broadband, whether rural or urban alike, pivoted quickly, and engagement with broadband-enabled platforms remains higher than pre-pandemic levels. The overall telework rate increased even as return-to-office mandates reduced average telework hours (i.e., more jobs have flex arrangements even if “days in the office” are increasing). Telehealth expanded and is anticipated to remain a core component of health care. And while emergency online learning differs from planned online learning, many schools absorbed the lessons of the pandemic and developed thoughtful hybrid models alongside increased classroom technology. The durability of these benefits correlates substantially with the quality of local broadband infrastructure.
As does confidence. A survey by Smart Rural Community℠ and the National Rural Economic Developers Association found that in communities with excellent broadband, respondents cited housing availability and affordability as the top barrier to economic development, followed by a shortage of skilled workers and limited business development. These perceived barriers actually reflect an enviable position: a community with robust broadband supporting good jobs but facing demand pressures on housing and workforce. Where communities self-assessed fair or poor broadband, the picture looked different: limited business development and insufficient infrastructure topped the list, and affordable housing was not an issue, possibly because labor markets weren't stressing demand.
Which brings us back to the beginning. Yes, agriculture and manufacturing face downward pressure. But many knowledge-based jobs can be worked anywhere, and the firms that create them can be headquartered wherever good broadband exists. Add the preference of many rural young adults to remain in their home communities, plus amenities attractive for in-migration (lower cost of living, natural recreation resources) and the future is bright for rural spaces.