Sometime in the first half-year of COVID (we now speak of it as its own distinct era alongside Classical, the Middle Ages, Early Modern, etc.) a noticeable number of media outlets reported on an urban exodus: people were fleeing the cities. Aversion to being proximate to other people coupled with the ability to “work from anywhere” was enough to prompt people to consider living beyond the concrete canyons. Of course, this did not necessarily translate to an all-out move to rural. One New York City newspaper profiled a family that pulled their city roots and moved . . . to Bergenfield, New Jersey (about eight miles away). And there is no foolproof way to predict where the pendulum will rest. But a recent report from the Center for Rural Pennsylvania reveals that, at least in that commonwealth, rural in-migration has had a measurable positive impact on home sales prices, while urban sales have decreased.
The Center for Rural Pennsylvania is a unique organization. It is a state office devoted entirely to rural issues in a state that is home one of the nation’s most historic cities (Philadelphia), an important midwestern industrial center on the other side of the state (Pittsburgh) and a constellation of mid-size and small communities in between. The Center has developed outstanding work over the past several years, including a critical analysis of broadband mapping that offered a deep and granular look of deployment in the Keystone state. For this month, the Center offers the following: Rural home sales overall increased 7%. The median home price in rural Pennsylvania counties increased more than 10% from 2019 to 2020. Higher priced homes sold more quickly. The factors behind these numbers are not explored, but the trends correlate to the beginning of the pandemic (era). And while rising home prices may prompt questions of potential housing shortages, the overall signals for rural communities are good.
These trends are welcome news for rural spaces where out-migration has contributed to net population loss. Broadband-enabled “work from anywhere” capabilities may address certain of the motivations leading to rural residents to seek more urban pastures. A 2015 report from the USDA Economic Research Service shared results of surveys that targeted participants at rural high school reunions, asking those who stayed (or returned) why they remained in rural, and then-urban residents why they left. The major factors in staying/returning were family, social quality, and community investments. The key factors prompting departure were lower rural wages and career limitations. Those disincentives may be less of a barrier now than they were year just a half-decade ago.
Rural communities that grow as their children return can benefit from skills and life experiences gained “on the outside.” This is particularly true when those skills are acquired in environments that do not (yet) exist in smaller rural spaces, such as professional medical training at an urban medical center. At the same time, in-migration from non-rural natives can help change the narrative on how people from rural and non-rural spaces see each other. A report from Pew Research explains that rural and urban residents feel that their respective communities are misunderstood by the other community; that they think that people from “the other” community do not share their values; that the others have a negative view of them, or do not understand their problems. Nothing offers better insight to what another is experiencing than actually sharing that experience. (And this is part of a longer conversation – the accuracy of perceived gaps, or whether there is truly more in common than residents on both sides of the equation might realize).
And so, as we wind down 2021 (and hopefully close out this COVID era), some take-aways: home sales data is corroborating anecdotal reports of urban-to-rural population shifts; rural communities can gain by capitalizing on those trends by attracting more of their young people to stay or return; “work from anywhere” capabilities address the biggest factor in rural out-migration; and our collective national story might benefit as communities come together.
All in all, not a bad place for a pendulum to find its equilibrium position.
