Recent data suggest that rural populations are not declining as dramatically as may have been portrayed in recent years. The same data, however, reveal that urban areas might gain additional political influence if legislative and congressional district lines are redrawn. This leaves us with a “good news, work to be done” proposition.
First, the good news: between 2010 and 2020, rural areas lost about one-half percent of their population. So, for the most part, rural areas are holding their own. At the same time, however, populations in suburbs and urban areas increased about 8%. At the outset, this implicates the possibility that states will redraw districting lines in ways that confer greater representation to the larger, more populated areas. Moreover, the data implicate an imperative to foster population increases in rural areas in order to keep pace with urban areas, both in terms of proportional (rural-to-urban) population as well as political representation. Part of this inquiry will include unraveling how much current urban growth is related to “in-migration” (people moving to urban areas from rural spaces) and how much is related to natural increase (birth rates exceeding death rates) or other sources, such as immigration. Overall, efforts would ultimately focus on retaining current residents while attracting new ones.
Recent media and other accounts describing a COVID-19 fueled out-migration from the cities into rural spaces may raise questions about the reported rural population losses. But there should be no reason to believe that these shifts are not occurring. In the first instance, the most recent census data reflect a decade of trends prior to the emergence of the novel coronavirus. The window on 2020 U.S. Census data collections closed in July 2020, barely four months after lockdowns commenced. Therefore, the decennial data may not reflect population shifts that occurred in 3Q20 and 4Q20 as COVID-compelled telework illuminated the “work from anywhere” option, or other reasons for moves.
At the same time, however, it should be noted that some of the outward movement from cities went only so far as the suburbs, rather than the more remote countryside. We are yet about a month away from the American Community Survey (set for release September 23), which reports the Census Bureau’s annual findings on housing, economic data, and demographics, and which should illuminate impacts of the past year.
As we wait, we can consider several points: (1) While rural populations are “holding their own,” the potential impact of metro gains to rural political influence should be considered and should inform rural advocacy strategies; (2) Rural areas have a unique opportunity to leverage intense national policy interest in broadband; (3) Rural areas with robust broadband that enables uninterrupted telework and facilitates telehealth and distance education can work with local and regional champions to build “rural recruitment” campaigns.
About a decade ago, a Center for Rural Strategies report noted, “While broadband will not bring immediate transformation to rural America, regions that lack broadband will be crippled.” And, within this blog and other places, we have often invoked the proposition that while it is unlikely that there are silver bullets for rural prosperity, there is silver buckshot. The values of living in rural spaces, the bonds of community building, the possibilities enabled by broadband – together, these can be invoked to help make the most of this time, and to build stronger rural communities for the future.
