“See, [educators] think that because [work-bound students] aren’t going on to college, that they’re just blowing it off, they’re taking the easy route. They need to realize that they’re actually working to go on to work.”
“Once I started working with steel, I don’t know, it’s just . . . I mean sure it’s hard labor . . . but it’s a different kind of labor . . . Here you can weld, you can torch, you can plastic cut, you can use band saws, you use punches, you use brakes, you use shears . . . fork trucks, anything you can think of to do with steel, I’ve run . . . I just enjoy it . . . you stand back after it’s done and you look at it and it’s like, ‘Wow!’”
(Students quoted in Plattsburgh State University report.)
The factors that drive rural high school graduates to post-secondary education; the workforce; or the military are diverse and individual. They are often affected by social, family and economic conditions that may include how prior generations charted their courses or the cost of college. Current labor shortages in telecom and construction likewise reflect numerous factors that combine to create current trends. Accordingly, it is difficult, if not improbable, to endeavor a one-size-fits-all solution either for industries seeking to fill jobs or to guide students as they graduate high school. However, a quick look at current trends in rural spaces, generally, can help define the scope of the issues and assist communities (who broadly include schools, job creators and policy makers) develop solutions.
Item 1: Gaps remain in post-recession growth between rural and urban spaces. Rural spaces are enjoying a 14.8% economic growth rate since the Great Recession, while urban spaces are experiencing 19.2% growth rates. Non-farm employment returned to pre-Great Recession levels five years after the end of the economic downturn. There are some caveats, however. One, slower overall growth rates in some rural areas can mask smaller gains in employment; stated differently, a lower number of actual available jobs may seem less significant where the overall population contracted. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that 40% of rural employment deficits trace back to lower population growth trends and an older, less educated workforce. Second, an overall “return to normal” has been slower than in other recessionary periods. This should not be surprising, since 2007-2009 was labeled the Great Recession. Nevertheless, the climb back has taken longer than prior downturns.
Item 2 offers better news: Areas with strong agriculture and a good mix of other industry sectors fared better than regions that staked their welfare on more limited sources of economic activity. Great Plains states that had lower proportions of manufacturing and professional services jobs typically experienced less disruption than other rural spaces.
Item 3: Rural America is fertile ground for high-tech jobs. Rural spaces are underrepresented in core areas that include software development, computer system analysts, cybersecurity and systems engineers. Or, stated differently, precisely the types of jobs that can be worked remotely from areas with robust broadband. And these are jobs that can be found within a wide swath of industries ranging from government to banking to healthcare to manufacturing.
I view these data optimistically and consistent with general Key Performance Indicator analyses for economic strength in rural spaces. To be sure, manufacturing jobs in rural areas declined 20% between 2000 and 2020. But manufacturing jobs created in rural spaces tend to have greater staying power than the same types of jobs that emerge in urban centers (for an in-depth look at these issues, please see this Smart Rural Community report). Additionally, manufacturing jobs are increasingly demanding technical skills due to the complexity of systems used to create consumer and industrial goods. Accordingly, while the overall number of manufacturing jobs may be decreasing, the remaining positions demand higher skill levels, and consequently, higher wages. In non-production sectors, telework is settling into an equilibrium. Even while some sectors bring workers back to the office en masse, the overall shift to blended workweeks or full telework offers an opportunity to backfill rural underrepresentation in key tech sectors that include “work from anywhere” jobs. Finally, evidence that diversified rural economies fared better during the Great Recession than those with more limited bases can encourage local and regional efforts to build a more intricate mosaic of small- and medium-size businesses.
Students are different from each other. Some will pursue two- or four-year degrees, others will head to the workforce, others will take advantage of opportunities in military service. But those are all pathways to constructive futures. Likewise, strategic economic plans will vary from community to community – but those avenues will be necessary paths toward resilient and vibrant rural futures.
For examples and resources of rural best practices, please visit the NTCA Smart Communities website.