British economist Richard Coase once observed, “If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything.” Economists are notorious for spinning information and offering ambiguous conclusions, frequently qualifying their remarks with, “But on the other hand . . .” Indeed, Harry Truman reportedly expressed his frustration with the field by demanding that he be provided with a one-armed economist.
At the same time, I am a fan of numbers (full disclosure, I hold an undergraduate degree in Economics). I also recognize that data can reflect all sorts of qualifiers, including the size of the sample, the demographics of the field and even the form and articulation of the inquiry. But data also provide us with a starting point, a way to offer definition to stories and conditions and to place markers around what we see and experience. Data do not necessarily present linear stories: data are points from which contours can be perceived, and the interrelationship of multiple data sets, particularly in demographic studies, often surface more questions than they resolve. But they help identify issues, and in doing so, help illuminate a path for development. So, with that introduction, a review of, and reactions to, the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) “Rural America at a Glance 2022.”
In brief, working-age populations in rural spaces are declining as the population of older adults increases. At the same time, the most rapid job growth in rural America is in small businesses, and health care and social assistance job opportunities in rural spaces are growing. While total jobs in ag and manufacturing are decreasing, yield and output in those sectors are increasing as technology enables greater efficiencies. Rural spaces are not alone in certain of these conditions: In metro (i.e., urban) areas, population growth for adults for 65 years and older is increasing faster than the working age population.
Overall, job opportunities in rural places are becoming increasingly diverse. If people think that rural jobs are farms and factories, the past decade has seen proportional increases in health care, tourism and service industries. Nearly half of rural America’s 23.6 million jobs are allocated among four industries in almost equal measure: government (3.7 million); manufacturing (2.6 million); retail (2.5 million); and health care and social assistance (2.4 million). Direct on-farm employment accounts for 2.6 million jobs, which are multiplied to more than 21 million jobs nationwide in agriculture and food-related industries.
Drilling down a little more, the largest rural job gains in the past two decades were in real estate and rental and leasing services, which ERS describes as including “nonresidential buildings, real estate agents, brokers and property managers, truck leasing, and commercial and industrial machinery and equipment rental and leasing.” This is all consistent with data showing that smaller businesses accounted for the fastest growing job sector in rural spaces, alongside administrative services and conventions and trade shows. Health care and social assistance grew rapidly, too.
So, let’s unpack the data: Technology is enabling greater productivity yields in farming and manufacturing, which means that fewer workers are needed to maintain current levels of output. At the same time, the proportion of older adults is increasing, which will require greater investments in health care and related industries over time. Property management activity is increasing, which may evidence increasing in-migration to rural spaces as well as the afore-mentioned growth in small business activity. Finally, growth in convention and trade shows industries in rural spaces is consistent with increased growth in hospitality and other service industries that support tourism.
And now (because this is what I do), let’s shine an NTCA broadband light on these issues: Broadband’s role in agriculture (including food and food-related industries) has been demonstrated and continues to advance, reducing everything from labor and chemical inputs while increasing yields and efficiencies. Broadband also plays an increasing role in manufacturing and the trades. Telehealth lowers costs and improves patient outcomes. And the growing preferences of “Work anywhere, from anywhere” augur good things for rural spaces.
To be sure, the ERS data has a mix of encouraging and less-encouraging points. But if we need to look at what it leaves in each of the economist’s hands, it seems to offer both opportunity and optimism to continue the building of a broadband-enabled future for rural spaces.
To experience more of what broadband can do for rural spaces, join us at Smart Rural Community Live, which will convene thought leaders from sectors including broadband, ag, education, healthcare, public safety, and economic development for informative and interactive discussions and dialogue.