An oft-repeated narrative, and one that frequently generates inquiry, is the so-called “shrinking” of rural America. But a look at the underlying data reveals those impressions may deceptive, and that the so-called shrinking of rural America in fact reflects pockets of growth.
The population within rural counties often provides a common metric by which rural growth or decrease is measured. Stated differently, a report may begin, “Ten years ago, X number of people lived in rural counties; latest figures reveal Y people live in rural counties.” If X is greater than Y, then rural areas are said to be in decline. These trends are often attributed to “natural decrease,” i.e., mortality rates that outstrip birth rates, or out-migration that exceeds in-migration. But according to a recent report issued by the University of New Hampshire Carsey Institute, these outcomes also arise out of rural counties that outgrew their rural designation and were moved to the “urban side of the ledger.” In that scenario, the total number of people living in rural counties has indeed decreased, but not because they moved away – rather, as some rural counties grew, or become more closely affiliated to metro areas, they effectively lost their rural designation.
As a first step into the conversation, let’s take a look at last week’s Wall Street Journal, which devoted page one coverage and then a continuing full page to the phenomenon of flight from the big city. It’s not any particular factor that is driving people away, but rather the attractiveness of backyards coupled with the ability to work from home that is attracting people away. As one subject of the article observed, New York City looks a lot better from New Jersey. But it’s not just New Jersey suburbs, which would hardly be viewed as rural, that are growing: developments in Florida and Texas are springing up over former farmland, and as they do, they become “attached” to (even without being absorbed by) metro regions. As the Carsey report explains, rural counties that are “on the periphery of an expanding metropolitan area are reclassified from nonmetropolitan to metropolitan.” And, in doing so, rural counties (and their populations) are counted as “declining” when this “shifts many fast-growing counties from the nonmetropolitan to the metropolitan side of the ledger.” It’s demographics, expressed in bookkeeping.
So while the total number of rural counties diminished by nearly 25 percent since 1970, it’s not because they evaporated – it is because some grew and/or became more closely tied to nearby metro areas. How the Federal government defines “rural” leads to these results. The Federal Office of Management and Budget (OMB) considers economic ties, such as those evidenced by commuting workers, between places when evaluating what is “metro” and “non-metro.” When rural populations grow toward a larger metro area, those ties tend to increase.
To be sure, attention must be paid to rural spaces where the opportunity for growth is realized to lesser extents. The most rural and insular places often face challenges of population and business declines or stagnation. For those areas, broadband is an imperative. As noted presciently a decade ago in a Center for Rural Strategies report, “while broadband will bring immediate transformation to rural America, regions that lack broadband will be crippled.” The past year evidenced how critical broadband is to economic, educational, and healthcare, and Congress has responded with energized interest in these regards.
And so the story of rural America reflects several truths. One is the need for broadband. Another is the evolving manifestation of, “If you’ve seen one rural place, you’ve seen one rural place;” there is no “one” rural. And the tandem growth/apparent-shrink phenomenon illustrates the variety of demographic experience in these places.
These changes are recognized not only in academic journals but in industry, as well. Locally-operated rural broadband providers serving these growing regions as incumbents or as expanding entrants (CLECs) leverage robust broadband networks to support evolving opportunities in these communities – all bearing the hallmarks of local commitment that is at core of these companies’ business. This is the story of Smart Rural CommunitySM an initiative of NTCA–The Rural Broadband Association, which champions the collaborative work of small, rural broadband providers to promote broadband-enabled solutions for economic development, education, healthcare and other vital services in rural areas. And later this month, NTCA will launch Smart Connected Community,SM which will tailor these efforts to meet the demands of larger communities that also now benefit from committed, locally operated broadband providers.
Like rural spaces, this change reflects the exciting opportunities enabled by growth.
